Islamic State attacks in the West fell steeply in 2018 compared with the previous four years, which might seem to be tied to a reduced threat the group can pose given its many recent setbacks. But according to a number of counterterrorism research organizations, the number of attempted attacks has actually remained steady. The difference, analysts at these organization say, is that law enforcement is increasingly foiling the plots. “We are able to conclude that there is no correlation between their military setbacks and the loss of territory and the intensity of the threat,” said Jean-Charles Brisard, the director of the Paris-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism. “Even if the Islamic State is losing both militarily and in terms of terrain, the ideology…remains present in the hearts of individuals who want to harm us.” For one, law enforcement agencies have increasingly been able to infiltrate terrorists’ online universe. With each arrest, the authorities seize the suspects’ cellphones and electronics, download their contacts and study their chats, turning one arrest into an opportunity to roll up an entire network. And although successful attacks are down, recently foiled plots show how dangerously close terrorists have come to carrying out a sophisticated mass killing. In Cologne, Germany, in June, authorities arrested a Tunisian man who had 84 milligrams of ricin and had been communicating with the Islamic State. He is believed to be the first jihadist in the West to produce the highly toxic biological agent, but may not be the last. The New York Times.