This week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2022 Hurricane Season Outlook, which predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season. For the 2022 season, NOAA predicts a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The increased activity anticipated this season, according to NOAA, is attributed to several climate factors “including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.” NOAA’s forecast is comparable to the one previously provided by the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project, which predicts above-normal activity for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season (WaterISAC reported on the CSU forecast last month). Read the Outlook at NOAA.