With the onset of the peak time for hurricane development, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University have released updated forecasts noting that they both expect an above-average 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

While both NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an above-average season, they have slightly decreased the amount of activity they predict. NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65 percent chance). NOAA’s update to the 2022 outlook calls for 14-20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). Comparing its early July forecast, Colorado State University provides the following probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall: on the entire U.S. coastline, 68 percent (compared to 75 percent before); on the U.S. East Coast, 43 percent (50 percent before); and on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, 43 percent (49 percent before).

So far, the season has seen three named storms and no hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Still, forecasters emphasize it takes just one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for those in its path and remind everyone in areas at risk of hurricanes to prepare the same every season. They also remind their audiences that the peaks months of hurricane activity are here. “We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.

Read more at NOAA and Colorado State University.