Yale Climate Connections has written an article discussing how climate change likely shaped the intensity of Hurricane Idalia and its effects upon landfall.

A key variable in this change is ocean temperature, as research has found the wind speed of hurricanes increases 4% for every one degree Celsius increase in tropical ocean temperature. When compared with NOAA’s wind damage tables, which calculate the damage potential of a hurricane based off windspeed, the authors find a “4-5% increase in winds yields about a 40-50% increase in the destructive potential of a hurricane.” Since the surface temperature of the waters in Idalia’s path are between 1 to 2 degrees above their long-term average, it’s likely Idalia will have an even higher damage potential.

Furthermore, the average rainfall intensity of Atlantic hurricanes has increased by 1.6% every year for 20 years, likely due to increased sea surface temperatures and water vapor. This trend creates stronger floods and more significant impacts for communities, especially as flooding can spread beyond the immediate path of a hurricane. Read more at Yale Climate Connections.