The Atlantic hurricane season officially ended last Tuesday, bringing an end to the sixth consecutive above-average season. A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) contends the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes is noticeably increasing. Hurricanes are the most expensive weather disasters impacting the U.S., this year’s season alone is expected to cost more than $70 billion. Thus, understanding the shifting hurricane trend is a critical effort. 

The study, led by MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel, concluded that not only are Atlantic hurricanes becoming more destructive, a notion supported by previous research, but are also growing in frequency. To conduct his study, Emanuel utilized a novel approach. Instead of relying on past historical observations, which most long-term hurricane research uses, Emanuel created his own climate modeling that recreated hurricane activity over the past 150 years. The study’s climate modeling included the use of dynamical downscaling – a climate simulation that is combined with real-world climate inputs – and climate reanalysis, a model that combines historical observations and simulated climate inputs.

The study’s results suggest climate change effects on weather patterns may be more regional than global. “The evidence does point, as the original historical record did, to long-term increases in North Atlantic hurricane activity, but no significant changes in global hurricane activity,” according to Emanuel. “It certainly will change the interpretation of climate’s effects on hurricanes — that it’s really the regionality of the climate, and that something happened to the North Atlantic that’s different from the rest of the globe. It may have been caused by global warming, which is not necessarily globally uniform.” Read more at MIT News or at the Washington Post.