Climate change will likely strengthen the power of hurricanes and increase the chances of them striking the U.S. Gulf and lower East coasts, according to new research from the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which examined the influence of global warming on the damaging storms. 

In the recently published study, Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change, researchers describe a previously unknown mechanism that fuels escalating risk to coastal residents.The study found that if current warming trends continue, storms would both strengthen and more frequently reach the East and Gulf coasts, with landfalling hurricane frequency rising by a third compared to current levels. The study’s authors discovered a previously undescribed mechanism behind the rising coastal hurricane frequency. It begins with relatively stronger warming in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, where the sea surface is typically cooler. The fluctuating winds of Earth’s upper atmosphere—induced by a warming sea surface in the Eastern Pacific Ocean—are responsible for the projected boost in hurricane frequency in the U.S. coastal regions. These changes in the steering winds that determine the path of a hurricane, which make it more likely that hurricanes will strike the East and Gulf coasts, have the added effect of weakening wind shear, making landfalling storms even stronger. Access the full study here or read more at PNNL here.