A new article in Lawfare seeks to identify how terrorist groups and non-state actors may adapt and innovate new technologies, specifically drones, for their own nefarious purposes. By understanding these trends counterterrorism professionals will be better positioned to disrupt, degrade, or destroy future threats. Just last month, WaterISAC previously reported on a potential drone attack against an electrical substation in Pennsylvania.

The article notes that terrorist groups interest in and use of drones stretches back over 25 years. Hezbollah, for instance, was one of the earliest terrorist groups to utilize drones, when in 2004 the group flew a drone across the Lebanon border into Israel. Since then, the commercial drone market has rapidly expanded, and many terrorist groups have been adopting drones for offensive purposes. Indeed, the article notes, “the dangers posed by commercial and small drone weaponization is likely to get worse and more complicated before states can devise and deploy effective and affordable ways to prevent and counter the threat. Ongoing advancements in technology have meant that commercial drones are becoming more sophisticated, capable and easier to use.”

The article focuses on five specific areas where terrorist groups could learn and improve upon existing drone technology. These “five windows into terror innovation” include failed experiments, interplay between defensive and offensive innovations, asymmetric mirror-imaging, hobbyist innovation, and enhancements for commercial products. WaterISAC previously reported on CISA’s security approach to the increasing drone threat. Ultimately, understanding the strategies and incidents associated with each “window” could provide analysts with additional nuance to better track and anticipate future terrorist activity. Read more at Lawfare.