Today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, increasing its prediction from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity. NOAA attributes the increase to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.

Specifically, NOAA forecasters increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). They anticipate 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA acknowledges the influence of the ongoing El Niño in suppressing hurricane activity, which scientists believe has counterbalanced the effect of elevated sea surface temperatures and led to a relatively quiet season so far. However, NOAA reports the limiting conditions associated with El Niño have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season. NOAA’s updated forecast is very similar to the most recent predictions from the Colorado State University’s (CSU’s) Tropical Meteorology Project. Last week, it released its final forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, in which it called for an above-average season with 18 named storms. Read the updated forecast at NOAA.