With El Niño in place for the first time in four years, this winter is expected to bring wetter condition in the South, leading to some drought improvement, as well as warmer-than-average temperatures in the North, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in recently released U.S. Winter Outlook.

According to the outlook, wetter-than-average conditions are anticipated for the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast, and lower mid-Atlantic. These conditions are also expected for northern Alaska and portions of the West. Meanwhile, the greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana. The wetter or drier conditions will cause drought to improve or persist. In terms of temperature, warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. (northern New England especially) and much of the Far West (including the Pacific Northwest and Alaska). Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains. In addition to the effects of El Niño, the presence of remarkable warmth lingering in the world’s oceans is expected to influence future weather patterns. El Niño is linked to above-normal waters in the Pacific Ocean. Read the outlook at NOAA and a related article at the Washington Post.