The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, a federally funded research and development center operated by the RAND Corporation, recently published an updated risk assessment report on the risk climate change poses to National Critical Functions (NCFs). The updated report found the supply of water is at risk of major or critical disruption due to climate change by 2100, among other findings.
NCFs, according to CISA, are functions of government and the private sector so vital to the U.S. that their disruption, corruption, or dysfunction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof. CISA has identified a total of 55 NCFs. Critical infrastructure organizations in turn support NCFs, providing communities with safe drinking water, reliable electricity, and dependable internet access. Climate change, however, “poses a threat to these systems in that the increasing frequency and severity of many climate hazards heighten risks of disruption and challenge the assumptions used to design and protect these systems,” according to RAND. Understanding these risks can help infrastructure owners and operators and other stakeholders allocate resources more effectively, make investment decisions, and prepare these systems for future hazards.
As part of their investigation, the authors examined the current and future risk eight climate hazards — drought, extreme cold, extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, severe storm systems, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and wildfire — pose to the 55 NCFs on a national scale. Based on their research, the report found 45 of the 55 NCFs are at risk of at least minimal disruption on a national scale from climate change by 2050 under a scenario that follows current emissions trends. In addition, 25 of the 55 NCFs are at risk of moderate or greater disruption by 2050 in the current emissions scenario. While three NCFs — Provide Information Technology Products and Services, Maintain Supply Chains, and Supply Water — are at risk of major or critical disruption due to climate change by 2100 in the current emissions scenario. If these risks are realized, these NCFs could be disrupted to the point they cannot meet routine operational needs in most or all of the country. Notably, the report found four of the eight climate hazards — flooding, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and wildfire — will have an outsized impact on the NCFs.
WaterISAC previously shared past RAND research, including a complimentary report to this assessment that offers mitigation strategies to help reduce the risk to NCFs highlighted above. It also shared a climate adaptation strategies tool to help stakeholders consider mitigation measures across six climate hazards. Read the full updated risk assessment at RAND.
