The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, a federally funded research and development center operated by the RAND Corporation, recently published a Landscape Assessment to determine the most effective methods for improving the security of soft targets and crowded places that are particularly vulnerable to mass casualty attacks.
Soft targets and crowded places (ST-CPs) are typically defined as locations or environments that are easily accessible, attract large numbers of people on a predictable or semi-predictable basis, and may be vulnerable to attacks using simple tactics and readily available weapons, according to CISA. Examples include sports venues, shopping centers, transportation systems, and houses of worship, among others. Attacks at ST-CPs can result in significant loss of life and contribute to an atmosphere of fear throughout society. For example, the violent extremist-motivated mass shooting at an outlet mall in Texas in May 2023, which led to the death of eight individuals, highlights the risk of mass casualty attacks at ST-CPs. In fact, active shootings led to 100 fatalities in 50 attacks in 2022 and 103 fatalities in 61 attacks in 2021, according to the RAND report.
Accordingly, to help mitigate the risk of future attacks, RAND researchers performed a landscape assessment of the threat to and major vulnerabilities of ST-CPs, existing security measures and initiatives, and ways to improve allocation of security resources. The researchers then developed a road map for future investments and made recommendations for improving ST-CP security and response to attacks. Some of the report’s key findings include that the most-common motivations for attacks are personal grievances, followed by terrorism and violent extremism motivations; schools and “private” buildings are the most–frequently targeted types of ST-CPs; and attacks on ST-CPs with large, accessible crowds, such as houses of worship, shopping malls, restaurants, bars, and nightclubs, have the highest average lethality. The online environment has also changed the nature and impact of ST-CP attacks. Online chatrooms, blogs, and the ability to live stream events have given potential attackers the ability to connect with supporters globally in an effort to seek fame or spread their ideological or personal message.
For enhancing the security of soft targets and preventing attacks before they occur, the report found layered security strategies, in which measures work together, improve the chance an attack will be prevented, halted, or mitigated. And access control systems, such as locks, secured windows, and secured entryways, have been effective and efficient but personnel should be trained in their utility and the systems should be maintained. Notably, bystander intervention has thwarted attacks in the past. Groups of bystanders tackling shooters have been highly effective. Training can make responses even more effective. Tips from the public have also prevented attacks. However, the report found public education on what to report and how, and support for threat assessment teams, would make tips more effective. Lastly, response command, control, and communications need to be improved. Alternatives to traditional, push-to-talk voice radio communications are needed.
The report also provides recommendations, some of which include finding ways to deter and dissuade would-be attackers; further evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of security measures; developing a model concept of operations for open and non-secure spaces, such as shopping malls and restaurants; and reviewing mass-shooting events to determine whether some ordinary criminal shootings should be treated as mass attacks on soft targets or crowded places, among others. Read more and access the full report at RAND.
To help enhance the security of soft targets and crowded places, WaterISAC encourages members to review these resources:
