A new study from researchers at the University of Bristol predicts that climate change will lead to a 26 percent increase in flood damages in the U.S. over the next three decades. The study, Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, collected data from flood insurance claims, building records, the census, and other sources to forecast how increasing global temperatures will impact flooding trends in the U.S., and determine which communities might be the most affected.

The researchers estimate the annual cost of flooding in the U.S. will go from $32.1 billion to $40.6 billion by 2050, a 26.4 percent increase. The prediction presumes that countries will reduce carbon emissions with targets set at the COP26 climate conference, thus if the targets are not met the costs could be higher. This study is in line with past research linking rising global temperatures with more frequent and intense flooding events.

Additionally, the study posits that underrepresented groups will be disproportionately affected by the increased flooding events. The researchers conclude that poorer White communities currently face the most immediate flood risks, but Black communities will witness flooding costs grow twice as fast in the future. Of course, geography has a large role to play, with many of the communities most at risk in the southeastern U.S. where more hurricanes are expected as temperatures rise going forward. Read more at the Washington Post or access the original study here.